In its Annual Threat Assessment report released by the Office of the Director of U.S. National Intelligence on March 18, the U.S. Intelligence Community, in particular, cites Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia change its constitution.
“[Azerbaijani] President [Ilham] Aliyev continues to insist that Armenia change its constitution to remove a reference that he characterizes as claiming Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Armenia, a step which would require Armenia to hold a constitutional referendum whose passage is not guaranteed,” the report says.
At the same time, the report notes that the U.S.-sponsored Peace Summit that was held between Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8, 2025 “has created an opportunity for the two countries to establish a lasting peace deal and contributed to increasing regional stability.”
The U.S. Intelligence Community, in particular, notes that “the results of the Peace Summit included a provisional agreement on the terms of a peace treaty and plans to establish the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), managed by the U.S., that will connect Azerbaijan to its exclave of Naxcivan across southern Armenia, unlocking trade flows for both nations and the region.”
In Washington’s assessment, these developments represent “a significant change in direction for Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.” The report recalls that “in 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan militarily retook control of its Nagorno-Karabakh region from an ethnic Armenian population supported by Yerevan.”
“Since August 8, both sides have appeared willing to maintain the momentum from the Peace Summit. Border ceasefire violations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have plummeted and now are almost nonexistent,” the report states, noting Azerbaijan’s shipments of gasoline and permitted transshipments of wheat to Armenia. “In October 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan had lifted restrictions on cargo transit through Azerbaijan to Armenia, a move that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian reciprocated within days,” it adds.
In public remarks since the Washington summit the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have repeatedly stated that the military conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has ended and that both countries are currently working toward a lasting peace.
Pashinian has recently reaffirmed his government’s readiness to remove from the constitution a reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence, which cites a 1989 unification act between Soviet Armenia and the then Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast. He said that the declaration is “built on the logic of conflict,” which Armenia cannot follow “if we want to build an independent state.”
Pashinian also said that the new constitution would be put to a referendum after parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, in which his ruling party will seek to retain its constitutional majority.
Opposition groups in Armenia have criticized Pashinian’s stance, arguing that removing the reference to the Declaration of Independence from the constitution would amount to a unilateral concession to Azerbaijan and could lead to further demands without ensuring lasting peace.