“We assume that economic growth in 2023 was in the 8.3-8.5 percent range,” Kerobian told a news conference on Monday.
The government recorded even faster growth in 2022: 12 percent. It was driven, in large measure, by re-exports of various goods to Russia sanctioned by Western nations for its invasion of Ukraine. The same factor appears to have been the main driving force behind the Armenian economy’s continued rapid expansion last year.
Data from the Armenian government’s Statistical Committee shows that the country’s industrial output rose by only 2.1 percent in January-November 2023, compared with more than 41 percent surges in its exports and imports. Second-hand cars, consumer electronics and other goods manufactured in Western countries and their allies and re-exported from Armenia to Russia accounted for most of this sharp gain. Armenian exports to Russia rose by 63 percent, to $2.9 billion, in January-October 2023, generating half of the South Caucasus nation’s overall export revenue.
The re-exports prompted concern from European Union and especially U.S. officials in early 2023. They pressed the Armenian authorities to comply with the Western sanctions. The authorities introduced in May mandatory government licenses for shipments of microchips, transformers, video cameras, antennas and other electronic equipment to Russia.
Kerobian said that his government is trying to “diversify” the exports. “We are working on India, China, Japan and many other directions,” the minister said without elaborating.
Although China remained Armenia’s second most important trading partner after Russia last year, Armenian firms exported less than $350 million worth of goods to the country in January-October.