Below are the preliminary results of an opinion poll commissioned by
RFE/RL and conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association on November
13-15.
By commissioning the poll, RFE/RL does not guarantee its accuracy. Opinion polls in Armenia have a less than optimal track record of accuracy, as proven prior to the 1996 presidential elections and on other occasions. However, we believe that a poll, conducted by a local polling organization, can give the public some measure of existing tendencies and create an opportunity for public debate and analysis. It can be noted, that there is a lack of any popular candidate for the presidency and the existence of a large block of indifferent potential voters. Armenia is eighteen months away from elections.
(Mardo Soghom)
One thousand randomly selected residents of Yerevan, Gyumri,
Vanadzor and Goris were asked to answer the following questions.
1. If presidential elections were held this Sunday would you cast your ballot?
1.
Yes: 570, 57 %
2.
No: 363, 36.3%
3.
Undecided: 67, 6.7%
2. If presidential elections were held this Sunday who would you vote for?
1.
Robert Kocharian: 148, 26%
2.
Arshak Sadoyan: 12, 2.2%
3.
Artashes Geghamian: 60, 10.5%
4.
Artur Baghdasarian: 24, 4.2%
5.
Vazgen Manukian: 20, 3.5%
6.
Paruyr Hayrikian: 5, 0.9%
7.
Stepan Demirchian: 24, 4.2%
8.
Serzh Sarkisian: 7, 1.2%
9.
Vladimir Darpinian: 8, 1.4%
10.
Aram Sarkisian: 4, 0.7%
11.
Other: 28, 4.9%
12.
No one: 57, 10%
13.
Undecided
3. How would you evaluate Robert Kocharian's policies in general?
1.
Very good: 16, 1.6%
2.
Good: 74, 7.4%
3.
Satisfactory: 386, 38.6%
4.
Bad: 193, 19.3%
5.
Very bad: 282, 28.2%
6.
No answer: 49, 4.9%
4. Who did you vote for in the previous presidential elections?
1.
Kocharian: 314, 31.4%
2.
Demirchian: 334, 33.4%
3.
Didn't elect: 80, 8%
4.
Didn't vote: 206, 20.6%
5.
No answer: 66, 6.6%
5. Which of the politicians listed below has more chances to become the
next president of Armenia?
1.
Robert Kocharian: 423, 42.3%
2.
Serzh Sarkisian: 67, 6.7%
3.
Aram Sarkisian: 67, 6.7%
4.
Vazgen Manukian: 18, 1.8%
5.
Stepan Demirchian: 53, 5.3%
6.
Artashes Geghamian: 93, 9.3%
7.
Nobody: 17, 1.7%
8.
Arshak Sadoyan: 5, 0.5%
9.
Artur Baghdasarian: 9, 0.9%
10.
Other: 6, 0.6%
11.
No answer: 299, 29.9%
6. Who is now the most influential political figure in Armenia?
1.
Robert Kocharian: 245, 24.5%
2.
Serzh Sarkisian: 139, 13.9%
3.
Arshak Sadoyan: 16, 1.6%
4.
Stepan Demirchian: 11, 1.1%
5.
Vano Siradeghian: 6, 0.6%
6.
Vazgen Manukian: 7, 0.7%
7.
Andranik Manukian: 5, 0.5%
8.
Artashes Geghamian: 32, 3.2%
9.
Levon Ter-Petrosian: 5, 0.5%
10.
Artur BaghdasarianL: 6, 0.6%
11.
Other: 14, 1.4%
12.
Nobody: 312, 31.2%
13.
No answer: 202, 20.2%
7. If parliamentary elections were to take place this Sunday, which party
or movement will you vote for?
1.
People's Party of Armenia: 78, 7.8%
2.
Republican Party of Armenia: 31, 3.1%
3.
Communist Party of Armenia: 145, 14.5%
4.
Armenian Revolutionary Federation: 71, 7.1%
5.
National Democratic Union, 46, 4.6%
6.
National Self-Determination Union, 17, 1.7%
7.
Orinats Yerkir party, 54, 5.4%
8.
National Unity party, 17, 1.7%
9.
Other: 31, 3.1%
10.
None of the parties: 229, 22.9%
11.
Would not vote at all: 132, 13.2%
12.
Undecided: 146, 14.6%
13.
No answer: 3, 0.3%
Respondent information
1. Sex
1.
Male: 471, 47.1%
2.
Female: 529, 52.9%
2. Age
1.
18-29: 249, 24.9%
2.
30-44: 361, 36.1%
3.
45-59: 210, 21%
4.
60 and higher: 180, 18%
3. Social group/Occupation
1.
Working class: 102, 10.2%
2.
Professional (or white collar?): 153, 15.3%
3.
Intelligentsia: 25, 2.5%
4.
Student: 48, 4.8%
5.
Housewife: 133, 13.3%
6.
Pensioner: 155, 15.5%
7.
Farmer: 0
8.
Business person: 34, 3.4%
9.
Unemployed: 350, 35%
4.City
1.
Yerevan: 400, 40%
2.
Gyumri: 200, 20%
3.
Vanadzor: 200, 20%
4.
Goris: 200, 20%
RFE/RL and conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association on November
13-15.
By commissioning the poll, RFE/RL does not guarantee its accuracy. Opinion polls in Armenia have a less than optimal track record of accuracy, as proven prior to the 1996 presidential elections and on other occasions. However, we believe that a poll, conducted by a local polling organization, can give the public some measure of existing tendencies and create an opportunity for public debate and analysis. It can be noted, that there is a lack of any popular candidate for the presidency and the existence of a large block of indifferent potential voters. Armenia is eighteen months away from elections.
(Mardo Soghom)
One thousand randomly selected residents of Yerevan, Gyumri,
Vanadzor and Goris were asked to answer the following questions.
1. If presidential elections were held this Sunday would you cast your ballot?
1.
Yes: 570, 57 %
2.
No: 363, 36.3%
3.
Undecided: 67, 6.7%
2. If presidential elections were held this Sunday who would you vote for?
1.
Robert Kocharian: 148, 26%
2.
Arshak Sadoyan: 12, 2.2%
3.
Artashes Geghamian: 60, 10.5%
4.
Artur Baghdasarian: 24, 4.2%
5.
Vazgen Manukian: 20, 3.5%
6.
Paruyr Hayrikian: 5, 0.9%
7.
Stepan Demirchian: 24, 4.2%
8.
Serzh Sarkisian: 7, 1.2%
9.
Vladimir Darpinian: 8, 1.4%
10.
Aram Sarkisian: 4, 0.7%
11.
Other: 28, 4.9%
12.
No one: 57, 10%
13.
Undecided
3. How would you evaluate Robert Kocharian's policies in general?
1.
Very good: 16, 1.6%
2.
Good: 74, 7.4%
3.
Satisfactory: 386, 38.6%
4.
Bad: 193, 19.3%
5.
Very bad: 282, 28.2%
6.
No answer: 49, 4.9%
4. Who did you vote for in the previous presidential elections?
1.
Kocharian: 314, 31.4%
2.
Demirchian: 334, 33.4%
3.
Didn't elect: 80, 8%
4.
Didn't vote: 206, 20.6%
5.
No answer: 66, 6.6%
5. Which of the politicians listed below has more chances to become the
next president of Armenia?
1.
Robert Kocharian: 423, 42.3%
2.
Serzh Sarkisian: 67, 6.7%
3.
Aram Sarkisian: 67, 6.7%
4.
Vazgen Manukian: 18, 1.8%
5.
Stepan Demirchian: 53, 5.3%
6.
Artashes Geghamian: 93, 9.3%
7.
Nobody: 17, 1.7%
8.
Arshak Sadoyan: 5, 0.5%
9.
Artur Baghdasarian: 9, 0.9%
10.
Other: 6, 0.6%
11.
No answer: 299, 29.9%
6. Who is now the most influential political figure in Armenia?
1.
Robert Kocharian: 245, 24.5%
2.
Serzh Sarkisian: 139, 13.9%
3.
Arshak Sadoyan: 16, 1.6%
4.
Stepan Demirchian: 11, 1.1%
5.
Vano Siradeghian: 6, 0.6%
6.
Vazgen Manukian: 7, 0.7%
7.
Andranik Manukian: 5, 0.5%
8.
Artashes Geghamian: 32, 3.2%
9.
Levon Ter-Petrosian: 5, 0.5%
10.
Artur BaghdasarianL: 6, 0.6%
11.
Other: 14, 1.4%
12.
Nobody: 312, 31.2%
13.
No answer: 202, 20.2%
7. If parliamentary elections were to take place this Sunday, which party
or movement will you vote for?
1.
People's Party of Armenia: 78, 7.8%
2.
Republican Party of Armenia: 31, 3.1%
3.
Communist Party of Armenia: 145, 14.5%
4.
Armenian Revolutionary Federation: 71, 7.1%
5.
National Democratic Union, 46, 4.6%
6.
National Self-Determination Union, 17, 1.7%
7.
Orinats Yerkir party, 54, 5.4%
8.
National Unity party, 17, 1.7%
9.
Other: 31, 3.1%
10.
None of the parties: 229, 22.9%
11.
Would not vote at all: 132, 13.2%
12.
Undecided: 146, 14.6%
13.
No answer: 3, 0.3%
Respondent information
1. Sex
1.
Male: 471, 47.1%
2.
Female: 529, 52.9%
2. Age
1.
18-29: 249, 24.9%
2.
30-44: 361, 36.1%
3.
45-59: 210, 21%
4.
60 and higher: 180, 18%
3. Social group/Occupation
1.
Working class: 102, 10.2%
2.
Professional (or white collar?): 153, 15.3%
3.
Intelligentsia: 25, 2.5%
4.
Student: 48, 4.8%
5.
Housewife: 133, 13.3%
6.
Pensioner: 155, 15.5%
7.
Farmer: 0
8.
Business person: 34, 3.4%
9.
Unemployed: 350, 35%
4.City
1.
Yerevan: 400, 40%
2.
Gyumri: 200, 20%
3.
Vanadzor: 200, 20%
4.
Goris: 200, 20%