In a statement, it also said that the European Union should not expect Russia and other ex-Soviet states making up the trade bloc to “not allow the Yerevan political crew to drown” and to “sponsor its marathon swim toward the EU.”
The statement came the day after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s phone conversation with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian during which he again called for a referendum on whether Armenia should leave the Russian-led bloc and continue seeking EU membership. Pashinian was reported to reiterate that such a vote cannot take place before the Armenian government makes a formal membership bid. The government remains in no rush to do that despite enacting last year a law declaring the “start of a process of Armenia's accession to the European Union.”
Putin declared this spring that Yerevan can no longer combine its European integration policy with its membership in the EEU which gives Armenian exporters’ tariff-free access to Russia, their main market. That was followed by Russian bans on multimillion-dollar imports of Armenian agricultural products and beverages. The EU responded to Moscow’s “economic coercion” by providing 52 million euros ($60 million) in urgent financial aid to Pashinian’s government and promising to open its market to the Armenian products hit by the Russian sanctions.
“According to information received by the SVR, Brussels recognizes the inevitability of a deep economic crisis in Armenia if Yerevan finds itself outside the Eurasian Economic Union,” said the Russian intelligence service. “It is emphasized that zeroing out revenues from participation in Eurasian integration will not ensure the stability of the Armenian authorities … at the expense of EEU members.”
The SVR also claimed that although the EU will be unable to compensate Armenia for “billions” of dollars in economic losses, it is pressuring Pashinian to “reduce the presence of Russian businesses in strategic sectors, sever humanitarian ties with the Russian Federation and suppress domestic opponents who oppose this.”
The Armenian government did not immediately react to the claims. Pashinian said earlier that the South Caucasus country cannot be kicked out of the EEU against its will.
Putin and the presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan implicitly threatened to do that in a joint statement issued in late May. They instructed their prime ministers to present “possible consequences” of such a scenario at an EEU summit planned for December.
Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner. According to Armenian government data, it accounted for 28 percent of Armenian foreign trade in the first five months of this year, compared with the EU’s 16.7 percent share. Russia also supplies the bulk of natural gas used in Armenia at a significant discount.